Papermaking industry: Papermaking of the fourth quarter invests strategy
From;    Author:Stand originally
08 the industry experiences   of fast growth   first half of the year 08 the industry experiences fast growth first half of the year, 8 years sales revenue grows line of business of 1-5 month papermaking compared to the same period 28.34% , profit grows 61.65% compared to the same period. At the same time gain ability has promotion, profit margin is amounted to in recent years exalted. But rate of produce and sale falls first half of the year, inventory increases indication market to face pressure of supply and demand. At the same time paper and chipboard export volume drop, and raw material entrance maintains growth as before. Product value is fluctuant, paper is planted foreground is differ main first half of the year this year paper plants   to all come true raise price, but second half of the year can be affected as a result of inventory and new increase production, product market value already appeared fluctuant. Boom of policy of environmental protection of country of culture paper benefit from benefit from will still last; Art paper because inventory and after be opposite 9 years new increase production can anxious, white paperboard is produced newly as a result of second half of the year can release, the price goes now to slip, scene bearing falls slightly; Newspaper boom spends annulus comparing to rise slightly, but walk out of trough to still need time; Board paper is put as a result of demand produce delay, newly can release pressure bigger, situation of situation of supply and demand is grim, child industry profit ability does not have improving evidence, boom be issued to lower levels will still last. The industry is added fast will put delay, gain ability become divided is remarkable with each passing day   is in after experiencing the high speed 8 years first half of the year to grow, because the price goes those who drive high to be filled with force to carry,rise element second half of the year to will be weakened first half of the year, enter plus 3 quarters off-season, prospective industry profit is added fast will put delay. At the same time papermaking industry existence is produced can structural sex is superfluous, each child trade situation bearing is differ, from appear on the market each paper that newspaper of company half an year publishs is planted gross profit level is fluctuant and OK see child industry boom is right the influence of company profit ability, the become divided of prospective gain ability will be remarkable with each passing day. One, 08 the industry experiences   of fast growth   first half of the year 1, income profit maintains rapidder growth, gain ability has promotion     08 the industry experiences fast growth first half of the year, 8 years course of study of 1-5 month papermaking realizes sales revenue to be one hundred and seventy-five billion three hundred and twenty-eight million yuan, grow 28.34% compared to the same period; Implementation profit total ten billion five hundred and seven million yuan, grow 61.65% compared to the same period. Look from industry profit ability, 8 years level of gross profit of 1-5 month industry is 13.27% , relatively go up of year of the corresponding period the promotion that 12.32% have a percent, but still be in low (amounted to 2002 17.22% , level of gross profit of 1-11 month industry was 13.74%) 2007. Although gross profit level still is in low, but of scope effect show make business management efficiency promotes, expense ratio falls during, the industry is integrated gain ability picks up. Industry profit margin is 5.99% , relatively go up the 4.65% promotion of year of the corresponding period 1.34 percent, be in historical perch. Of level of industry whole gain rise, make the profit of the industry adds an amplitude of prep above sales revenue. 2, fall after a rise of industry crop amplitude, inventory increases     8 years paper of mechanism of enterprise of papermaking of above of dimensions of 1-8 month whole nation and crop of chipboard accumulative total are fifty-five million six hundred and thirty-six thousand tons, grow 12.3% compared to the same period, amplitude relatively go up of year of the corresponding period 16.2% have fall after a rise, because 8 years of new increase production can be not much,basically be, policy of national environmental protection washs out a part to lag behind produce can, because rate of start working of boom be issued to lower levels falls,this exterior cent paper is planted. From produce and sale rate data looks, paper of our country mechanism reachs chipboard yield 8 years first half of the year forty-one million seven hundred and twenty-nine thousand tons, sales volume forty million four hundred and eleven thousand tons, rate of produce and sale is 97.5% , relatively go up of year of the corresponding period the fall after a rise that 98.6% have 0.9 percent. As the fall that produce and sale leads, the inventory of mechanism paper and chipboard increases remarkable, paper and chipboard stock rise 29.2% than the beginning of the year first half of the year this year, this index relatively go up of year of the corresponding period 13.8% reach 18.1% litres of 8 years first quarter remarkable. Rate of produce and sale falls the addition that reachs inventory shows the market faces pressure of supply and demand. 2, the industry is added fast will put delay     1, raw material price is exalted, cost pressure still the big   deficient as a result of domestic fiber resource, the wood pulp of 58% , waste paper support of 45% imports course of study of our country papermaking () of 7 years of data, value of market of international raw material rises to constitute greater cost pressure to the enterprise continuously. Go from oar price situation look, the international oar price that marks a price with the dollar since 2008 maintains as before rise posture, enter after September somewhat fall after a rise, at present needle leaf oar is in 863.13 dollars / ton, broad leaf oar is 817.63 dollars / ton. The oar price that European market marks a price with euro fluctuates somewhat, reduce after perch is achieved at the beginning of Feburary, will show litre of sign again later in April, at present price of needle leaf oar and broad leaf oar already achieved 606.3 euro respectively / ton, 574.34 euro / ton exalted. Because Russia raises the tariff that exports log, will bring about what oar of leaf of needle of area of Finnish and other places controls oar cost to rise, postpone litre of action to arriving since price of needle leaf oar thereby. Because broad leaf oar did not have the new increase production of Asia and South-American area can, supply increases predict to make oar price hasten firm. Waste paper respect, expand ceaselessly as a result of demand and global waste paper reclaims amount general interest is steady, the price involves litre of range bigger, data of Chinese paper net shows the United States abandons 8# relatively the beginning of the year already had nearly 25% go up, price of predicting waste paper will still maintain perch. Lag behind in 4.5 million tons when the country plans 7 years to fall into disuse produce can medium, about 40% it is cheap culture paper, to improving culture paper supply demand relations is affected bigger. Predicting culture paper child the industry intensifies fulfilling improvement of brought supply and demand to will last as a result of policy of national environmental protection boom, but as a result of,also should see at the same time culture paper child industry boom spends what elevator belt comes to change the line of production reach investment to increase an influence, in 9 years of later period high-grade culture paper will face constant pressure. Art paper: Boom falls slightly   home art paper child the industry experiences rapidder development 5 years recently, produce can increase to by 2.41 million tons of 2003 4.35 million tons of 2007, yield rises 4.2 million tons by 1.6 million tons, year all grow 21.3% ; Consumption increases 3.67 million tons by 2.03 million tons, year all grow 12.6% ; Start working is led 96.5% what by inadequacy 70% promotion come 7 years. Export growth entrance is replaced make art paper realizes only outlet in 5 years, the improvement of supply demand relations makes child the industry enters boom ascendant process in 6 years. As a result of industry of domestic art paper higher concentration is spent, bargain capability is stronger, upsurged come true below the circumstance in boom first half of the year this year relatively substantially raise price. But because inventory pressure reachs new to future increase production,enter second half of the year can anxious, the price goes now to drop. Industry of domestic art paper will turn over a dumping 5 since 2003 years this year in August protective period expires, eye advances to reconsider period, in reconsider period art paper of the entrance inside a year returns what still collect 4-71% dumping tax rate, because this is short-term inside foreign product still won't form concussion to home market. Although United States of 7 the end of the year cancels double to our country art paper turn over punish to be helpful for exit, but foreign economy puts delay to already brought about art paper exit 8 years to drop compared to the same period. New increase production of 8 years of art paper can be not much, but will have in succession after 9 years princely, new inferior wait for many tons of 100 new increase production can. Be based on exit to drop reach future to be produced newly can put in, boom of predicting art paper falls slightly. White paperboard: Boom falls slightly   white paperboard child demand of card of the smoke in the industry is relatively steady, the development speed that because the industry such as downstream medicine, cosmetic is faster,the society blocks promotes demand growth, scene bearing is taller 8 years first half of the year, product implementation raises price, promotion of level of relevant company gross profit is remarkable. But second half of the year because inventory pressure and new increase production can affect (Henan is new inferior project of 200 thousand tons of white paperboard is amounted to in the round this year produce, industry of beautiful interest paper project of paper of 300 thousand tons of Bai Ka this year first half of the year industry of paper of put into production, sun second half of the year of 400 thousand tons of item, predict second half of the year still has 350 thousand tons of) that rich collects 9 years, market price case goes now to drop. Predicting second half of the year fluctuates as a result of the price element, child the gain ability promotion that the industry will not continue to because raise price,be brought first half of the year, child trade situation bearing falls slightly. Newspaper: Walk out of trough to because the part is produced,still wait for time     8 years can exit and the stimulation of Olympic Games demand, newspaper realizes 1400 yuan inside year raise price, the effect that raise price makes child annulus comparing improves the gain ability of the industry somewhat. But newspaper child the industry still is in seek status for be more than, international newspaper price is low confuse pair of exit to form restrain, domestic demand is attributed to calm after Olympic Games height passes, because this is long-term price foreground is not hopeful. Although newspaper is in,boom looks up somewhat first half of the year this year, but be based on state of supply and demand not to have fundamental improvement, child the industry walks out of trough to still need time. Board paper: Paper of board of   of boom be issued to lower levels child the industry suffers downstream industry to pack demand the impact is bigger, suffer international economy to put delay influence, exit of our country industrial product adds fast hasten delay, at the same time domestic economy is added fast put delay, bring about downstream industry to put delay to packing requirement of the board that use case thereby. And in supply side, because build board paper project nearly two years more, especially industry of industry of industry of nine dragon paper, manage article paper, Jing Xing paper, Yangzhou always of the large product line such as company of Feng Yu papermaking in succession put into production, new increase production can be more. Board paper child the industry is faced with bigger produce can release pressure, and demand is faced with again put delay, situation of situation of supply and demand is grim, at the same time price of waste paper of main raw material rises quickly continuously, child industry profit ability does not have improving evidence, boom be issued to lower levels will still last. 3, morning of   of key attention company cries company of paper industry   is country's biggest omnibus papermaking company, do business first half of the year income grows 25.81% compared to the same period, net profit grows 143.60% compared to the same period, implementation fry batter in a thin layer is thin every accrual 0.46 yuan. Industrial program of the country and increase fulfil fall into disuse backward produce can the development of the bibcock enterprise that strength will be helpful for having dimensions advantage. The promotion that at the same time the company contains oar proportion is right also of company profit level rise form positive effect. The company produces per year Tu Buyin of 120 thousand tons of art to brush paper project to predict in September 2008 put into production. In addition, project of an organic whole of paper of Zhan Jiang forest is being advanced in order, promotion company competition ability. Company of   of sun paper industry is company of advantage of white calipers model, technology, do business first half of the year income grows 39.18% compared to the same period, net profit grows 46.29% compared to the same period, realize every profit 0.45 yuan. Limited company of chipboard of sun of industry of paper of international of cooperative company Shandong year 300 thousand tons liquid packs design productivity base paper product line at formal in August 2008 put into production. This grandfather department is cast actively build contain oar item in order to solve the raw material weak point of the company board, the company dominates industry of paper of Yong Yue of city of share company Yan limited company produces per year project of 100 thousand tons of chemical mechanical pulp to had begun pile to build, will undertake at 8 the end of the year equipment is installed, predict 9 years in May put into production. Create Laos forestry company at the same time establish a mark to wear build outside the condition forest the job of oar base gains headway. Rich collects main product of company of paper industry   to be paper of paperboard, culture, 08 do business first half of the year income grows 31.96% compared to the same period, net profit grows 189.13% compared to the same period, realize every profit 0.35 yuan. Culture paper protects punish as a result of national beaded finish, fall into disuse backward produce can predict to will still maintain taller scene bearing; Because white paperboard is faced with produce certainly can release pressure, wave motion of market price case will affect the promotion of gain level. The profit growth of company future comes from new project, project of capital of 7 years of collect of company is finishing already put into production, project of paper of mask of 150 thousand tons of gesso generates profit 42.27 million yuan, good at anticipating; Ability of 95 thousand tons of chemical wood pulp revises a project at 8 years in May put into production of the middle ten days of a month, manufacturing facilities still is in adjust period, amount to postpartum will conduce to a company saving cost. This grandfather department produces per year project of 350 thousand tons of high-grade paperboard that pack to had signed mainframe equipment contract with beautiful eminent company, at present this project is in construction.

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