The Central Bank lowers interest to be affected to papermaking industry very sma
From;    Author:Stand originally
On October 8, 2008, tone RMB puts loan below decision of Chinese people bank standard interest rate 27 base point, carry out since October 9. This is the Central Bank lowers interest the 2nd times after will reduce loan interest rate on September 15 act. In lower interest while, the Central Bank still moves interest rate of legal deposit reserve once more low 0.5 percent. Central Bank this action aims to alleviate fluidity pressure, stimulative economic stability develops. Analysis and judgement   lower interest conduce to reduce company leasehold cost, save financial cost. Because papermaking industry has sth used to one's own advantage concentrated sex feature, papermaking company has higher capital fund generally indebted rate. The newspaper in 8 years shows, papermaking course of study appears on the market indebted rate restricts the average capital fund of the company 54% , highest achieve even 80% . Take breath is indebted / the proportion of shareholder rights and interests is higher also, average level is in 1 the left and right sides, highest reach the level of 2 even. Cease according to the belt of the newspaper in 8 years of each company indebted dimensions, we calculated interest rate to reduce the 27bp effect to financial cost. According to current loan scale, 27bp is reduced in interest rate, morning cries paper industry can save financial cost 9 years 23 million yuan, and sun paper industry and China peaceful share can save about 10 million yuan. Other company also has quite considerable expense to save. But, lower interest scanty to the influence terribly of company EPS. Our calculate show, if bank loan interest rate reduces 27 base point, the EPS of industry of beautiful interest paper adds profound effect most apparent, about 0.023 yuan. It is sun paper industry and China peaceful share next, it is respectively 0.017 mix 0.015 yuan. Overall and character, increase thick scope and not apparent. In the meantime, the amplitude modulation below the interest rate that borrows money to the enterprise considering the bank is possible even next amplitude modulation under standard interest rate, so the Central Bank lowers interest policy is right of each company EPS add thick still need to sell at a discount. The gain foreground of the company suffers industry boom and rather than to lower interest the dominant of incident. In the industry trends report that rolls out yesterday, we think to suffer the effect with abate demand, the scene bearing of industry whole reachs peak first half of the year in 8 years, the price of main product also sees a top in 8 years of 3 quarters. Industry boom enters phase of be issued to lower levels ahead of schedule. We are right close city firm visit also confirm our view. And in 09-10 year, because be produced newly can put in pressure, the boom of the product such as such as white paperboard, art paper and high-grade culture paper is spent will still further fall after a rise. Although lower interest,will make charge of company finance affairs is cut down, but want far weak at demand abate brought negative effect. Additional, we think trade demand is impossible also to lower interest in 9 anabiosis quickly below the stimulation of policy, because this lowers interest,incident can't change us to change to prospective supply and demand of the trend anticipate. In investing the outstanding achievement of company of proposal   key to forecast, had considered industry boom to run metabolic influence. Considering lower interest to be affected to company outstanding achievement very finite, accordingly our of short duration does not adjust company profit. Although the industry begins to enter phase of be issued to lower levels, but the abidance of share price drops to had anticipated to this have more sufficient report. In at present share price falls, the appraise value of key company tends basically reasonable level, its PB all under 1.5x, be in relatively safe level.

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