Papermaking industry: Boom fall after a rise pays close attention to growing sex
From;    Author:Stand originally
Appear on the market 8 years first half of the year growth of company outstanding achievement and form     8 years first half of the year, papermaking kind appear on the market total business income, total profit amount and total net gain compare the company on year the corresponding period grows 29.73% respectively, 61.11% with 69.84% ; Appear on the market company total net profit compared to the same period in the amplitude of 69.84% , of product gain ability rise, business income growth, " 3 cost " occupy (business income) contributed 8.19 29.37 25.62 percent, percent, percent and 6.66 percent respectively than reducing what lead with income tax to drop, the contribution that product gain ability increases to grow to profit is the largest. Industry boom achieves   of high point   8 years 8 years first half of the year outstanding achievement of whole of annual papermaking industry grows extent general under 8 years first half of the year; Compare with 8 years, because do business,the element that rises in price to rise with product gain ability is lacked in income and net profit growth, 9 years annual papermaking industry appears on the market company (whole) business income and net profit grow compared to the same period will under 8 years. Of strategy of investment of 8 years of the fourth quarter and crisis of banking of United States of   of key attention company and the global money market that cause from this queasy, increase the whole world and uncertainty of Chinese economy progress, its are forecasted hard to the influence degree of the industry, in the meantime, papermaking industry boom begins fall after a rise, below such one big environment, 8 years strategy of investment of the fourth quarter is: From child trade situation bearing is opposite in higher company, search city to be filled with rate is low, and a few years the likelihood will have what increase capacity continuously henceforth, in the meantime, we reduce the grade that pays close attention to a company for hold grade, the four seasons is spent, we pay close attention to rich to collect paper industry and morning to cry mainly paper industry. One, trade general situation (one) general situation of trade of papermaking of 8 years ago 7 months 2008 1 to July, mechanism paper and chipboard crop amount to forty-eight million five hundred and eight thousand three hundred tons, than going up year of growth 13.1% , among them newspaper crop two million eight hundred and three thousand three hundred tons, than going up year of growth 6.6% . Mechanism paper and chipboard crop continue to maintain faster growth. Since 7 the end of the year, papermaking industry boom rises continuously, drove papermaking and paper products line of business fixed assets investment grows continuously, 2008 1 to July, accumulative total of fixed assets investment completes papermaking and paper products line of business the forehead fifty-four billion two hundred and ninety-three million yuan, grow 26.2% compared to the same period; Amplitude of fixed assets investment approachs level of 7 years of annual, industry boom rises, drive fixed assets to invest amplitude to pick up. (2) price of international raw material begins add of fall after a rise 7 years after the abidance of price of annual international raw material rises, 8 years first quarter, continuity of price of international raw material rises, came on December 28, 2007 on March 26, 2008, (FOEX) the European dollar value of hardwood kraft pulp, European dollar value that blanchs cork kraft pulp and the American dollar value that blanch cork kraft pulp, respectively every tons of 775.23 dollars, 869.3 dollars rise to be mixed to 800 dollars, 880 dollars with 864.67 dollars 880 dollars, 8 years go up first quarter it is respectively 3.19% , 1.23% with 1.77% . 3 afore-mentioned prices were mixed for 840 dollars, 904.72 dollars respectively on June 17, 2008 880 dollars. Compared on March 26, 2008, nearly 3 months go up it is respectively 2.5% , 2.81% with 0% , of the dollar valuation of American market blanch cork kraft pulp, sluggish of nearly 3 months goes up. And European market of the oar price with dollar valuation rise, basically be euro to dollar exchange rate rise. 3 afore-mentioned prices were mixed for 819.26 dollars, 867.46 dollars respectively on September 16, 2008 873.96 dollars. Compared on June 17, 2008, dropped respectively between nearly 3 months 2.47% , 4.13% with 0.69% . 8 years ago 3 quarters, (FOEX) the European dollar value of hardwood kraft pulp, European dollar value that blanchs cork kraft pulp and the American dollar value that blanch cork kraft pulp, experience respectively first quarter small rise, the sluggish of the 2nd quarter goes up and the 3rd quarter drops 3 phase. Come from January 1, 2008 on June 30, 2008, between 6 months, useless, 8# and 11# beauty abandon 3# beauty futures price rose respectively 8.16% , 32.89% with 7.46% , enter second half of the year, price of beautiful useless futures begins to drop, come from June 30, 2008 on August 31, 2008 between 2 months, useless, 8# and 11# beauty abandon 3# beauty futures price fell respectively 1.89% , 1.67% with 6.12% . Price of beautiful useless futures is experienced longer after period rises continuously, evidence of occurrence fall after a rise. 2, half annals outstanding achievement is analysed (one) boom rises 8 years first half of the year, gain ability splits up 7 years of second half of the year, industry boom rises to basically be centered in what be raw material with wheat straw and bulrush intermediate culture uses the paper product, high-grade culture paper that is raw material with wood pulp and paperboard product, 8 years first half of the year, intermediate culture uses the paper product, paperboard price that is raw material with wood pulp all substantially rise, price range is bigger, the half an year 8 years ago, intermediate culture rises in price every tons with paper product 300-400 yuan differ, main product rises in price extent all exceeds 4% ; High-grade paperboard every tons of price is the most rising amount to 1000 yuan or so, intermediate culture uses paper product value rise to also be taken pull used high-grade culture paper - of the product such as art paper rise in price. As a result of product value go up already exceeded raw material value rise, 8 years first half of the year, intermediate culture uses ability of gain of high-grade culture paper and paper product, paperboard product to rise apparently, relevant enterprise collects paper industry, morning to cry like rich paper industry, sun paper industry and (already stopped 8 years to produce newspaper, produce culture paper entirely) industry of Yue Yang paper, product wool interest rate and profit of company net profit rise considerably. To it corresponding, it is the paper product of main thread raw material with waste paper, gain ability drops. In recent years, china is produced for the paper product of raw material with waste paper can outspread faster, produce can fast dilate, make product excess supply, make waste paper demand of China and waste paper entrance increase continuously at the same time, 7 years since, waste paper is to go up a highest fiber raw material, but of paper of the newspaper that is raw material with waste paper, board and value of corrugated paper product go up however under waste paper of international market of the corresponding period go up. 8 years since, suffer economy to add fast the influence with exit amplitude fall after a rise, board paper demand is abate, relative to the supply ability of the product, demand not flourishing, of raw material price rise cannot conduct product value completely to go up, of product value rise under raw material and price of the sources of energy go up, with 7 years with 6 years higher gain capability is compared, board paper produces ability of company product gain to drop considerably. (2) operation expands continuously 8 years first half of the year, gain ability rises 8 years considerably first half of the year, build chipboard piece to share appear on the market 20 appear on the market company (by Shen Moyan investigate place classification, be the same as below) , appear on the market total business income, total profit amount and total net gain compare the company on year the corresponding period grows 29.73% respectively, 61.11% with 69.84% , the increases prep above business income growth of profit total; Compare first half of the year with 7 years, the growth range of total business income, total profit amount and total net gain parts 28.18 18.15 percent, percent mix tower above 34.41 percent. 8 years first half of the year, papermaking industry appears on the market company operation expands continuously, gain ability rises considerably. 8 years first half of the year, go to chipboard piece has 2 companies loss in 20 companies in appearing on the market, in 7 years first half of the year, 19 appear on the market there are 3 losses in the company. (3) appear on the market the company is mixed 7 years first half of the year product gain ability is analysed 8 years first half of the year 8 years first half of the year, build chipboard piece (whole) product gain ability rises apparently, we are right 2006 metaphase, metaphase was mixed 2007 metaphase built whole of ability of gain of chipboard piece product to compare 2008 (the Annie share that our shave appears on the market except 8 years, appear on the market to 19 company whole undertakes comparative, similarly hereinafter) , 8 years metaphase whole gross profit is led (appear on the market 19 of the company advocate advocate the sum of business Wu profit is divided in order to do business income the sum) amount to 19.34% , increase 1.75 percent first half of the year than 7 years, increase 0.7 each percent first half of the year than 6 years, it is interest rate of wool of nearly 3 years of metaphase a highest year, 8 years since the rise of industry boom, make gain of whole of company paper product appears on the market to rise inside the industry. 7 years first half of the year, ability of gain of most company product drops, in gross 19 (7 years papermaking industry appears on the market company in all 19) appear on the market in the company, shave is negative enterprise except gross profit, only morning cries industry of paper industry, green hill paper and rate of gross profit of golden city share rise, interest rate of wool of other papermaking enterprise drops generally. 8 years first half of the year, 20 papermaking kind appear on the market in the company, the wool interest rate of 12 companies rises compared to the same period, 60% what hold total home number, in the company that rises in 12 wool interest rate, interest rate of 3 companies wool increases 5 percent above compared to the same period, this company is ordinal it is ST appropriate paper, Kane share and rich collect paper industry, wool interest rate adds these 3 companies compared to the same period 8 years first half of the year ordinal for 6.8 7.41 percent, percent and 5.54 percent, ST appropriate paper and rate of gross profit of triumphant favour share add main ascribe company 7 years considerably first half of the year deficit, and make up the deficits and get surpluses comes true first half of the year in 8 years; Rich collects paper industry, because company main product all is centered in boom to spend expensive wood pulp to be the paperboard of main raw material and the culture paper product that are raw material with straw pulp to go up,be, of the paperboard that the company is main raw material with wood pulp and the ability of gain of culture paper product that are raw material with straw pulp rise considerably. 8 years first half of the year, interest rate of 8 companies wool drops compared to the same period, in these 8 companies, be in except 2 8 years first half of the year deficit, the others 6 companies: 2 are what be main raw material with waste paper is medium cheap wrapping paper produces a company -- industry of Jing Xing paper and industry of green hill paper; 2 newspaper that are main raw material with waste paper produce a business -- the paper austral Fujian and industry of China peaceful paper; Additional 2 are company of production of special type paper -- coronal a person of extraordinary powers is new and high industry of He Hengfeng paper. In 8 companies that drop in product wool interest rate, divide 2 (8 years first half of the year) outside the enterprise of deficit, product wool interest rate drops range is the biggest is He Jingxing of the paper austral Fujian paper industry, 8 years first half of the year, wool interest rate dropped respectively compared to the same period 4.97 with 4.32 percent. Product wool interest rate drops 8 years first half of the year appear on the market company, in basically be being centered in what be fiber raw material with waste paper, company of cheap wrapping paper is mixed newspaper company. (4) 8 years first half of the year papermaking kind appear on the market company management efficiency rises, income tax scale drops build chipboard piece (whole) appear on the market improvement of year after year of company management efficiency. We are right 2006 metaphase, metaphase was mixed 2007 metaphase built chipboard piece whole to manage efficiency to undertake comparative 2008 (the Annie share that our shave appears on the market except 8 years, similarly hereinafter) , 2006 metaphase, metaphase was mixed 2007 2008 metaphase, papermaking board appears on the market 19 times company " 3 cost " the proportion that summation holds business income total is respectively 11.81% , 10.93% with 10.46% , rise as what appear on the market to the year after year of company operation expands and run ability, management efficiency also year after year rises, become appear on the market the main factor that company management outstanding achievement grows. 2006 metaphase, metaphase was mixed 2007 2008, go to chipboard piece appears on the market 19 times company (deduct in those days the company of deficit) total income tax and total profit amount are compared show downtrend, especially 8 years, the country should pay enterprise income tax profit amount by the past 33% drop 25% , appear on the market total income tax leads the company by 7 years of medium-term 20.41% drop medium-term 17.33% . (5) 8 years first half of the year papermaking kind appear on the market growth of profit of company net profit is formed 8 years first half of the year, papermaking industry appears on the market total net profit grows the company to basically come from 4 respects considerably: Be product gain ability rise; 2 increase be business income considerably; 3 be management efficiency rise; 4 be gains tax rate drop. Pass our estimation, 8 years first half of the year, papermaking industry appears on the market company total net profit compared to the same period in the amplitude of 69.84% , of ability of gain of business income growth, product rise, " 3 cost " occupy (business income) contributed 8.19 29.37 25.62 percent, percent, percent and 6.66 percent respectively than reducing what lead with income tax to drop. Of product gain ability increase contribution the biggest, it is the growth in business income next. 8 years first half of the year, papermaking industry appears on the market company (whole) the growth of business income comprises by 2 parts: It is the addition of sales volume; 2 it is to result from since 7 years of second half of the year, what be raw material with wheat straw and bulrush is intermediate go up below the abidance that culture uses the paper product, high-grade culture paper that is raw material with wood pulp and paperboard product value, of the price rise. Our estimation does business 8 years first half of the year income of 29.73% go up in, the 20% addition that come from sales volume; 10% control those who come from product value to rise. Of product wool interest rate raise basically be product value to rise. 3, the fourth quarter invests strategy (one) amplitude of outstanding achievement of 8 years of annual under 8 years first half of the year 7 years, paper of Chinese papermaking industry and chipboard crop are more than consumption first, 7 years of annual and 8 years ago 7 months, the investment amplitude that paper and paper make product all maintains in 26% above, 6 years paper and paper build goods investment to add fast put alleviation since 7 the end of the year because of energy-saving decrease a platoon to shut paper mill to decrease produce can the supply of the sex of paper product structure that double effect causes is in short supply, investing amplitude place to make up for in the goods that be built by 7 years of of 26% paper since, after reaching 7 years 7 years, papermaking industry is overall supply exceeds demand. We think second half of the year is reached henceforth a paragraph of period, the management environment of papermaking industry should inferior at 8 years first half of the year, accordingly, we think papermaking industry boom already reached high point first half of the year 8 years, 8 years of second half of the year and ability of profit of 9 years of papermaking industry boom and industry will from high point fall after a rise. We predict, wood pulp of 8 years of second half of the year and waste paper price will slightly under 8 years first half of the year. Since 8 years August, early days raises price range taller a few in the price of high culture paper, common paperboard already appeared small fall after a rise, experienced the major paper product that raises price nearly one year, value of second half of the year may be little fall after a rise, and the manufacturing company of board paper, suffer industry to add fast gliding influence, its price and product gain ability will continue to drop. Such, 8 years of second half of the year (opposite at 07 second half of the year) product value rises will under 8 years first half of the year (opposite at 07 first half of the year) go up, business income of 8 years of second half of the year and product wool interest rate (opposite at 07 second half of the year) go up will under 8 years first half of the year, accordingly, 8 years of annual, appear on the market because of the papermaking industry that rise in price and drives company (whole) the growth range of business income and net, under the growth range 8 years first half of the year, and the business income amplitude that because sales volume increases,drives and keep balance first half of the year. Annual " 3 cost " occupy business income scale and gains tax rate to be maintained basically first half of the year level. We predict: 8 years annual papermaking industry appears on the market company (whole) business income grows 22% to control compared to the same period, net profit grows compared to the same period (contain deficit to appear on the market company) 48% the left and right sides. Predict, put delay 9 years as what global economy grows, the demand of paper and oar increases also fall after a rise, the price that compares global oar with 8 years and value of main paper product will fall somewhat. Be in China, put delay because of what economy grows, total spending increases predicting papermaking trade extent general under 8 years, chinese papermaking industry is in those who experienced price of 8 years of raw material and paper value relatively after growing substantially, price of raw material of 9 years of fiber and paper product value will somewhat fall after a rise, accordingly, do business 9 years the dilate that the growth of income basically will come from operation, because do business,the growth of profit of 9 years of net basically will come from the growth of income and " 3 cost " occupy (business income) reduce than continuity, compare with 8 years, because do business,the element that rises in price to rise with product gain ability is lacked in income and net profit growth, 9 years annual papermaking industry appears on the market company (whole) business income and net profit grow compared to the same period will considerably under 8 years. (2) 8 years the fourth quarter invests strategy 8 years second half of the year, as a result of the United States second the financial crisis that borrows the crisis to cause and the influence to the United States and global money market, economy are being shown, global economy growth puts delay to reach go up pressure offset cost and the negative effect that economy grows are more and more apparent, get the price tall look forward to and paper demand are abate mixed influence, the wood pulp that rose more than nearly 4 years continuously and waste paper price already began fall after a rise. Be in China, the money that lasts in recent years is constrictive with the accumulation of effect of policy of macroscopical adjusting control action already was shown, chinese economy grows the trend that puts delay to already was formed, financial crisis of the United States and China basically export national economy growth to put delay, make the external environment of Chinese economy more austere, current, of a large number of medium and small businesses close down, explaining we are faced with the austere sex of macroscopical economy environment. On the other hand, those who face the grim situation of American banking crisis, money market and the global money market that cause from this is queasy, since 8 years September, the United States moves to save 2 rooms and AIG company one after another, each country government also publishs the measure that help city in succession, 8 years on September 19, american government announces to roll out history on the most large-scale finance saves the action " bad assets rescue plans " . On the other hand, to ensure the smooth health of Chinese economy develops, 8 years on September 15, the Central Bank announces " double rate Qi Jiang " , be will 4 years lower interest first and reduce deposit reserve to lead 5 years first, the direction of macroscopical adjusting control already appeared the likelihood of change. Of the dim, money market of economy of the crisis of American money market, whole world queasy as unprecedented as the United States save a plan large-scaly to interweave; Of the effect of macroscopical adjusting control that China lasts show reach economic growth to put delay and direction of macroscopical economy adjusting control to may transform interweave, increased the whole world and the uncertainty that Chinese economy grows. What financial crisis of the United States reachs the global market that causes from this is queasy, increase the whole world and uncertainty of Chinese economy progress, its are right industry and the influence level that consume confidence are forecasted hard, in the meantime, papermaking industry boom begins fall after a rise, below such big environment, 8 years the four seasons is spent, we pay close attention to the key child trade situation bearing is opposite in higher company, search city to be filled with rate is low, and a few years the likelihood will have what increase capacity continuously henceforth, in the meantime, we reduce the grade that pays close attention to a company for hold grade, the four seasons is spent, we pay close attention to rich to collect paper industry and morning to cry mainly paper industry.

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