Foreground of look forward to of paper of international pulp value is little fal
From;    Author:Stand originally
It is with the international oar price of of vital importance of domestic papermaking business at the beginning of this year after developing historical perch, two months begin to appear recently small fall after a rise. Although majority analyses a personage to think, from arrive at present at the beginning of next year, international oar price will still small slow callback, but at present the price of the cost of tall look forward to and not complete unobstructed is conducted, in the profit space that second half of the year can continue to encroach a business, also will produce negative effect to downstream and numerous industry at the same time. International pulp price one " ox " towering   from 2006 since, international pulp price begins to be climbed successively litre. Among them already market demand increases drive rise in price, also have the power that is gone the dollar generally to wrap hold something under the arm by force by price of fatigued and weak, heavy goods. Guo Taijun installs offerred data to show, price of international wood pulp was in basically 2006 rise in. Up to by January 2007, no matter oar of needle course of study still is broad leaf oar, quote already all broke through the corresponding period is bit higher last year: Oar of needle course of study by the 612 dollars at the beginning of 2006 / ton, rise the 750 dollars to the end of January 2007 / ton, rise 22.5% ; Near future of broad leaf oar goes up a hasten delay, but still by the 600 dollars at the beginning of 2006 / ton, rise the 670 dollars at the beginning of 2007 / ton, rise 11.70% . And this year in June, international oar price broke through 900 dollars to close greatly, north America blanchs price of cork kraft pulp to reach 904 dollars / ton, the value is subsequently little fall after a rise, this variety price will fall to 858 dollars in September / ton. China invented papermaking method, but Ceng Yi spends contemporary papermaking raw material by forestall of straw pulp place. Production straw pulp although cost is low, raw material is solved easily, but its are very big to environmental pollution, close in what begin in succession inside nearly 5 years stop the small paper look forward to, industry that transforms product line to upgrade in motion, law of straw pulp papermaking is washed out basically, wood pulp makes the mainest raw material. But the country that China is lack of vegetation of a forest, the raw material pulp of domestic papermaking course of study should count an import. Because pulp holds the 3-5 of cost of domestic papermaking company,become between, the fluctuate of pulp price affects the gain of papermaking course of study and deficit directly. More important is, paper kind the product is one of industrial product raw material with use very tall frequency, if sign up for what course of study, press needs to presswork,culture uses paper, the wrapping paper box of of all kinds commodity, be opposite consequently for a lot of industries, pulp price can say is " pull one hair and use the whole body " . Although a few enterprises have pulp product line, but without look forward to of a paper can complete autarky. Accordingly, rise in price when pulp, the enterprise of direct damage includes China peaceful share (600308) , morning cries paper industry (000488) , industry of Yue Yang paper (600963) , Jing Gulin course of study (600265) etc, the including of indirect damage publishs medium (601999) etc. In addition, importing waste paper also is one of main raw material of Chinese papermaking industry, plant in the individual paper such as newspaper in, waste paper content is achieved even 7 into above. The fluctuant pulse that is the same as international oar price agrees basically, the price of international waste paper also from 2006 the bottom begins to go up stage by stage raise, small fall after a rise after high point is achieved first half of the year this year. Since July, international oar value is little fall after a rise. Data shows, international pulp spot price will drop considerably in August 15%-20% . But of international oar price drop and did not bring good news to papermaking enterprise. As international a large amount of trading one of type of merchandise, the fluctuant drag in of international oar price is numerous the interest that invests an orgnaization. Heart volition bank thinks at the report that publishs by August, international pulp price falls panel height anticipates at most analyst, drop more than normally level, and manufacturing business inventory relatively the corresponding period increased last year about 24% , this one pressure may company of impute to papermaking. Subsequently, heart volition bank falls the grade of international paper industry and Domtar from average attune to hold, reason is pulp price falls company of papermaking of situation be a burden on gains profit possibility increases. This is meant, although import the cost expenses of pulp to decrease, but because global economy grows,put delay to bring about pulp price to glide, paper products demand also can turn subsequently weak, affect the price ability of papermaking company then, its profit space still corrodes.   of care of can of foreground of course of study of papermaking of second half of the year although international oar price reachs historical culmination first half of the year this year, but papermaking appears on the market the company also is in metaphase handed over a achievement is best this year " exam paper " : Net rises industry of Yue Yang paper first half of the year 164.38% , net profit of the paper austral Fujian rises 700% , rich collects paper industry, civilian abundant special paper, morning cries growth of paper industry net profit all is between 50%-100% . Both the contradiction between refracts those who give awkwardness of papermaking course of study to live condition. Some papermaking course of study appears on the market company tall valve expresses, from 2006 since, the profit of papermaking industry is eroded by cost year after year. It is with newspaper exemple, this paper is planted in the industry before 2005 most boom period can achieve the wool interest rate of 25% , but it is at the beginning of 2007, hua Tai, morning cries the gross profit that waits for bibcock enterprise has 15%-18% only. It is cost is driven on one hand, it is to produce on the other hand can outspread create market supply exceeds demand, the price such as newspaper, art paper rises successively in oar price while " drop drop endlessly " , this loses the market to counterpoise actively because of papermaking enterprise just about, lack the bargain capacity with purchaser. "The paper such as the newspaper since this year plants rising in price is be forced to do. " Zhao Wei says papermaking association secretary-general. Because cost rises too big, the enterprise must announce to rise in price. This also is to cause the main reason that the bumper harvest signs up for in papermaking enterprise this year. "Actually of the product carry valence to do not have those who offset cost to go up, this breach still is in erode company profit. " Guo Taijun installs Wang Feng of papermaking industry analyst to say: "Although price of oar of nearly two months somewhat fall after a rise, but the product August carries valence to was not achieved anticipate range, it is very difficult that good-looking in that way money declares to sign up for estimation in continue in 3 quarters and annals. "   is in when collective of newspaper look forward to will consider the 3rd times since this year raising price August, cable industry also is in prepare to raise price. The day before yesterday of below division of group of Beijing cable trade 5 press announces to carry valence to reach 1 yuan from 0.5 yuan. Before this, southern Metropolis Daily, contemporary Metropolis Daily announce to rise in price in succession. Paper industry observes the personage thinks, paper is tasted as a kind of semifinished product, those who face buying the home is the forestall body that group signing up for course of study can form unified behavior this kind, together with the medium and small businesses before this is numerous, produce can dispersive, the price speech advantageous position that paper savors did not master in enterprise hand all the time, bring about an enterprise to get cost and price are double extruding. Forest company of oar paper unifinication is benefited the heavy goods such as   and the sources of energy, precious metal is same, pulp regards a kind of main strategy as resource, china is in again in international industry chain " passivity takes a beating " position. Because China is in short-term inside the dependence that cannot change pair of entrance oars, supplier of international raw material takes the chance to rise in price, this kind of phenomenon is on the fundamental the sources of energy such as iron ore, crude oil ever also showed for many times come. The personage inside course of study points out, should shift strategy of unifinication of travel forest paper energetically, drive pulp to consume an enterprise to form pulp of wooded, production, production paper to taste " one continuous line develops pattern " . Guo Yongxin of expert of strategy of industry of director of center of information of Chinese light industry, paper points out, carry out " forest paper unifinication strategy " later, encourage papermaking enterprise afforestation, get through forest, oar, paper produces chain, enhance the control ability of pair of upper reaches raw material. In addition, to answer the cost of upriver raw material to fluctuate, partial personage suggests to establish wood / pulp futures breed, cover in order to offer a company period keep a cost, avoid rises in price risk. Disclose according to hep personage, home already had some city Commodity Exchange to be in the futures breed with imitate and similar pattern of complete a business transaction of Comex pulp futures, establish North America to blanch futures of needle leaf oar, once opportunity maturity can be rolled out.

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